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3 levels of progress. How do inspectors judge this?

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    Students are expected to make 3 levels of progress between KS2 and KS4. Let’s say in my hypothetical school, all 100 students in Year 11 made exactly 3 levels of progress ( no more and no less) in all subjects.

    It goes without saying that inspectors will be looking at other evidence to make a judgement on learning and progress, but given the above hypothetical school, what grade is suggested by this data?

     

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    This is a tough one. 3 levels progress for all would probably be indicative of a CVA over 1000. Can't say for sure because so much is dependent on FSM and other contextual measures.  You're right that other things are taken into account when measuring progress and the evaluation schedule is clear about that.  The past 3 years data takes into account CVA. English and maths levels progress for the current Y11, or predictions are other indicators and of course the quality of learning and progress in lessons observed. 
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    Good = almost all pupils make the progress they are expected to.

    Outstanding = a significant proportion of pupils make better than expected progress, in addition to the "good" judgement above.

    Therefore the hypothetical school would be good.

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    Thanks littlerussell, but I am not sure your equivalences are correct. This is taken from the Ofsted evaluation schedule; section the quality of pupil learning and progress.Good= “A very large majority of pupils make at least good progress and some may make outstanding progress” Satisfactory= “The pupils make the progress expected given their starting points and some, although not the majority, may make good progress.”  Given that in the hypothetical school mentioned above, all pupils “make the progress expected given their starting points” i.e. exactly 3 levels of progress from KS2 to KS4. This seems to be evidence for the judgement of satisfactory for the quality of pupil learning and progress.  Comments?

     

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    I've had a long think about this one. You're right bobspoons, that 3 levels progress exactly would appear to indicate satisfactory progress, so Level 3 pupils should reach grade D, Level 4 pupils reach grade C and Level 5 pupils reach grade B. It falls down because of the 'ceiling effect' of primary SATS.  Raise online table 2.1.20 tells you what represents 'expected progress' if pupils fall within the green zone. For pupils who leave primary school with Level 4, the green zone covers grades A*-C.  The lower limit, grade C is exactly 3 levels progress, so I would consider this satisfactory progress. 

    The ceiling effect though puts a spanner in the works. If all pupils at level 5 reached a grade B; still 3 levels progress, this would probably be inadequate. 

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    Thanks robby64. That's really useful.

     Just to clarify, by "ceiling effect" you mean any primary school children who end KS2 working at above level 5 will be officially recorded as being at level 5. The implication for school and inspectors is that within the group of students with KS2 level 5 , some are expected to attain A* and A grades at GCSE.

     

     

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    Yes, exactly.

     

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    I had always assumed that a student with an end of KS2 level= 4 would be expected to achieve a grade C (level 7) in that subject at GCSE. Today I was told the following:

     

    A student with an end of KS2 level = 4, is assumed to have achieved a level 4b.

    At the end of KS3, expected progress would mean this student should attain level 6b

    At the end of KS4 ,expected progress would mean this student should attain grade B

    This was all backed up with "official" tables, showing how levels convert to points at the end of KS2, and then how points and progress convert to grades at the end of KS4.

    In summary, I was being told that KS2 level=4 should convert to GCSE grade B.

     

    Has anyone else come across this conversion or do most people work with my original assumption?

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    Depends on whether you are looking at FFTD conversions, the LA conversion data or Raise. Since this is an Ofsted forum, Raise is probably the one you need to refer to. Table 2.1.20 gives maths conversions and 2.1.21 gives English conversions.  For level 4, you can see it goes green if pupils reach grade C.

    The DfE call this 'expected progress' and it's precisely what they report to the public, which can be seen on http://www.education.gov.uk/performancetables/  

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    Thanks robby64. I've checked the website and Raise, everything you've said is spot on. Thanks again.

     

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